President Donald Trump promised a new beginning in foreign policy. In Europe he has taken an independent course, pushing Russia and Ukraine to make peace. However, in the Middle East he continues down his predecessors’ misbegotten path—apparently ready to wage new, even more destructive wars.
Successive administrations made the American people accomplices to mass killing in Yemen—on behalf of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. They also aided Islamic jihadists in attempting to overthrow Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, providing weapons to radicals who targeted religious minorities. Multiple presidents threatened military action against Iran, a nation that endangers the Saudis and Israelis, not America. The same administrations waged war against Shia militias in Iraq after President George W. Bush blew up that nation, triggering a sectarian civil war. Washington has consistently underwritten Israel’s brutal treatment of Arabs, both under and beyond the latter government’s control.
In short, America’s record in the Middle East is one of counterproductive, lawless violence, often on behalf of other states. At least Bush alleged the presence of important U.S. interests in Iraq. His successors have essentially represented the Saudi royal family and Israel’s radical Netanyahu coalition. In the process, Washington abandoned even the pretense of humanitarian commitments.
The results are beyond catastrophic, as Maha Yahya of the Carnegie Middle East Center recently noted in Foreign Affairs:
“Over the last 15 years, the Middle East has been racked by war, destruction, and displacement. Hundreds of thousands of people have died as fighting raged in Gaza, Lebanon, Libya, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen. Millions more have fled. The violence has rolled back gains in education, health, and income while laying waste to homes, schools, hospitals, roads, railways, and power grids. The war in Gaza has proved especially devastating, setting back the territory’s socioeconomic indicators to 1955 levels. The World Bank and UN organizations have estimated that rebuilding the Middle East and providing enough humanitarian aid will cost between $350 and $650 billion. The UN Development Program has estimated that at least $40 to $50 billion is needed to rebuild Gaza alone.”
Unfortunately, Trump is continuing this disastrous approach. He is intensifying the Biden administration’s illegal military campaign against Yemen and threatening war against Iran. He doubled down on his predecessor’s unconditional backing for Israel’s murderous campaign in Gaza, endorsing Israel’s breach of the very ceasefire that he had demanded both parties accept. Finally, the new administration is ramping up military action nearby—in Somalia, for instance—despite little evidence of any threat to America.
In much of this Trump is effectively backed by the Blob, the foreign policy establishment, despite its ostentatious contempt for him. In Washington there is almost unanimous support for an imperial foreign policy in the name of the fictitious “rules-based order,” a system designed by Western nations yet routinely breached by them. For many Blob members, war is a first, not last, resort. Dominance and primacy are considered to be adequate reward, irrespective of the amount of wealth squandered or number of American, let alone foreign, lives sacrificed.
Washington once viewed the Middle East as vital. The region provided much of the West’s oil supplies. The genesis of the Carter Doctrine, the willingness to use force in the Persian Gulf, was fear that the Soviet Union might capture or destabilize the region. However, international energy supplies have diversified, the U.S. has become the world’s leading energy producer, and no foreign power threatens to dominate the Gulf. Energy is no reason for America to promiscuously intervene, let alone do so militarily, in the region.
Another traditional justification for perpetual meddling in the Middle East was Israel. Washington long has provided essentially unconditional support for that state’s policies, however ruthless. The worst rationale is junk theology depicting a modern secular state run by atheists as the theological successor to the ancient Hebraic kingdom. In any case, Israel is now a regional superpower, with conventional superiority and nuclear weapons. It is well able to defend itself, though it has most recently used its military power for expansion—in the West Bank and potentially in Gaza and elsewhere.
Islamist violence against American and other targets turned terrorism into another justification to use military force. But Washington’s interventions actually were the primary cause of attacks on Americans. Bombing, invading, and occupying other nations, supporting allied states that did the same, and underwriting authoritarian, oppressive regimes created blowback. What sane Arab resident, other than a royal potentate, could view Washington as a friend? Unfortunately, American civilians were the most vulnerable target. The U.S. should avoid other nations’ squabbles, rather than take on those controversies as its own.
Mixed in is fear of a hostile regional hegemon. Yet the U.S. has shown no concern about the Saudi royal family imposing tyranny at home and engaging in aggression abroad. For instance, Riyadh helped solidify the oppressive rule of the minority Sunni royal family over the majority Shia population in Bahrain. Similarly, successive administrations exhibited few qualms about Israel’s ability to bomb Palestinian subjects and neighboring nations. Despite the caterwauling in Washington about Iran, the latter’s rulers have generally sought to avoid a confrontation with America. Anyway, domination of the Middle East offered little advantage after energy supplies diversified. The Middle East, filled with primordial disputes and, worse, failed and failing states, should be treated as the least important region for the U.S., other than Antarctica.
Trump does not argue that the Middle East matters or that intervening advances U.S. interests. Treating the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia like an ally risks U.S. lives for nothing. Making the Middle East safe for absolute monarchy makes a mockery of Washington’s claimed commitment to human rights. Moreover, underwriting Israeli policies, most notably refusing to treat Palestinians as human beings with fundamental rights and legitimate aspirations, ensures that the Middle East will remain in violent turmoil. Observed Maha Yahya: “Try as they might, Israel and the United States cannot bring about peace by sidestepping the Palestinians. In fact, attempting to do so is what got them here.” Yet Trump doesn’t even pretend to care about the brutal ethnic/religious cleansing and promiscuous killing of Palestinians and other Arabs.
Fueling wars elsewhere is no answer. Battling Ansar Allah in Yemen may prove endless. Addressing the group, also known as the Houthis, the president insisted: “Stop shooting at U.S. ships, and we will stop shooting at you.” However, they are targeting U.S. vessels because Washington intervened in their neighborhood. The Houthis interrupted Red Sea traffic in response to Israel’s U.S.-enabled destruction of Gaza and halted their attacks during the recent, short-lived ceasefire. Trump triumphantly declared that “The Iran-backed Houthi Terrorists have been decimated by the relentless strikes over the past two weeks,” but the Biden administration regularly targeted Ansar Allah and its allies since December 2023 without evident result. Moreover, the Houthis outlasted years of Saudi bombing using American planes guided by American intelligence serviced by American contractors dropping American munitions and initially refueled by American tankers.
Ultimately, U.S. victory in Yemen would likely require use of ground forces. James R. Holmes of the Naval War College observed that “Aircraft cannot occupy territory, however valuable a supporting capability they are for armies and Marines.” Insisting that the Netanyahu government live up to the recent ceasefire would be the simplest strategy to reopen the Red Sea. And even victory would yield few benefits for America. Washington’s reputation will decline as the administration follows the Saudi practice of killing civilians to achieve its ends. Finally, noted Vice President J.D. Vance in the infamous Signal group chat, Trump is now doing Europe’s (as well as China’s!) bidding, making the seas safe for other nations’ ships. This after the Europeans decided it was better to pay a little more for shipping rather than fight a desultory war in the Middle East.
Tehran does not threaten America, yet the president appears to be even more enthused about attacking Iran than Yemen: “If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing,” he declared: “It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.” Tragically, it was Trump’s foolish first-term decision (against the advice of most of his advisers) to abandon the JCPOA nuclear deal that pushed Tehran substantially closer to developing nuclear weapons.
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War with Iran without congressional authorization would be illegal. It also would invite potentially devastating retaliation throughout the region. Threatened Iranian military commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh: “Someone in glass houses does not throw stones at anyone,” yet “The Americans have at least 10 bases with 50,000 troops in the region, meaning they are sitting in a glass house.” The Gulf kingdoms could find their oil facilities to be targets as well. Iraq, a Shia-majority nation in which Tehran enjoys substantial political influence and supports significant paramilitary allies, also could be drawn into the conflict. Finally, an attack on Iran would dramatically demonstrate to the Iranian regime that only a nuclear weapon can ensure its survival.
The president is rightly determined to return Americans’ interests to the center of Washington’s policy toward Europe. Yet in the Middle East he risks initiating the sort of endless wars for which he criticized his predecessors. Another illegal aggressive conflict would take America’s reputation to new lows. Amid multiple Middle East crises the administration likely would discover America to be quite lonely, despite its power.
Instead, Trump should apply the principle of America First to the Middle East. That region no longer matters much beyond its boundaries, especially to this nation. Washington’s policy should reflect this modern reality.
