Trump and Obama’s odds of winning the presidency if they faced off for historic third term

A new poll suggests that Donald Trump should be careful what he wishes for when he said last week he’d ‘love’ to run against Barack Obama for a third presidential terms.  

Trump was pressed last week on the hypothetical faceoff in the wake of his proclamation that he could find a way to run again in 2028.

When asked what he thought about a potential showdown with fellow two-termer Obama, he said: ‘I’d love that. That would be a good one. I’d like that.’

An Overton Insights survey of 1,100 registered voters, however, claimed that he might not love it so much, as Obama leads the dream head-to-head 53 percent to 47 percent over Trump.

Obama notably would dominate Trump among moderate and independent voters, taking 59 percent of independents and 61 percent of moderates.

Trump’s predecessor would also take 10 percent of his own 2024 voters, whereas he would only swipe 3 percent of Kamala Harris voters.

The current president added: ‘I know people are asking me to run and there is a whole story about running for a third term. I don’t know. I never looked into it. They do say there’s a way you can do it, but I don’t know about that.

‘But I have not looked into it,’ he continued. 

A new poll suggests that Donald Trump should be careful what he wishes for when he said last week he'd 'love' to run against Barack Obama for a third presidential terms

A new poll suggests that Donald Trump should be careful what he wishes for when he said last week he’d ‘love’ to run against Barack Obama for a third presidential terms

An Overton Insights survey of 1,100 registered voters has Obama leading the dream head-to-head 53% to 47% over Trump

An Overton Insights survey of 1,100 registered voters has Obama leading the dream head-to-head 53% to 47% over Trump

Right now, no Constitutional law allows Trump or Obama to run again in 2028.

Just three days into Trump’s second term, Rep. Andy Ogles, a Tennessee Republican, sent out a proposal to amend the 22nd Amendment to open the door for a Trump third term

Ogles’ Constitutional amendment would allow for Trump to run for a third term – but prohibit Obama from doing so, because the Democrat had already served two consecutive terms. 

The other former two-term living presidents, Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Bill Clinton, also wouldn’t be eligible if this amendment was passed. 

‘No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than three times, nor be elected to any additional term after being elected to two consecutive term,’ the text of the Ogles’ Amendment read. 

There’s an incredibly high bar to pass a Constitutional amendment – as two-thirds of both the House and Senate would need to sign on – as well as three-fourths of the state legislatures. 

With the current nearly 50/50 split in the country of Republicans and Democrats it’s extremely unlikely an amendment of this kind would pass – especially one that only aims to allow Trump to serve thrice. 

Yet the topic of a Trump third term again came up over the weekend, when the president talked to NBC Meet the Press host Kristen Welker by phone recently. 

Trump was pressed on the hypothetical faceoff in the wake of his proclamation that he could find a way to run again in 2028

Trump was pressed on the hypothetical faceoff in the wake of his proclamation that he could find a way to run again in 2028

‘A lot of people want me to do it,’ the 78-year-old president said.

A chant of ‘four more years’ broke out at the White House last week during the president’s Greek Independence Day event. 

‘But, I mean, I basically tell them we have a long way to go, you know, it’s very early in the administration,’ he continued.  ‘I’m focused on the current.’

When asked why he’d want another term, the president responded, ‘I like working.’ 

‘I’m not joking,’ he continued. ‘But I’m not – it is far too early to think about it.’ 

He was then asked if he’d been presented with plans on how to serve a third term. 

‘There are methods which you could do it,’ he said. 

He was asked about those comments on board Air Force One Sunday as he traveled back to Washington, D.C. 

‘I don’t want to talk about a third term now because no matter how you look at it, you’ve got a long time to go,’ Trump said. 

Obama, a longtime rival of Trump, has never expressed any interest in running for a third term. 

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