Is smoking making a comeback? The Guardian reported this week that “Smoking rates in parts of England have increased for the first time in nearly two decades”. It is wise to be wary of such claims since they are usually accompanied by demands for more taxpayers’ money to be thrown at obsolete stop-smoking services. Sure enough, both the Guardian article and the study upon which it is based call for more “investment” in “regional tobacco control”. Nevertheless, the evidence does suggest that smoking rates have been ticking up in the south of England and that there are roughly as many smokers in the country as there were in 2021.
For hardened zealots, this is proof that the government has been too soft on smoking. Lord Bethell, a leading Tory paternalist, has already suggested that the phasing out of tobacco sales proposed in the Tobacco & Vapes Bill is a half-measure and that full prohibition is the answer. Expect much more of this kind of talk once the Bill becomes law. But for those of us who have not drunk the nanny state Kool-Aid, the proximate cause of smoking’s mini-revival is the “public health” lobby itself. The fault lies not in the stars, but in themselves.
There have been four large increases in tobacco taxes since 2021 which have had the effect of lowering the de facto price of cigarettes for millions of people. Last October I wrote about how legal tobacco sales fell by 30 per cent in just two years despite a much smaller decline in the number of cigarettes smoked. The figures for 2024 were published recently and show that sales fell by 45 per cent between 2021 and 2024 despite the number of smokers falling by less than one per cent. For those with eyes to see, this is conclusive proof that the black market for tobacco has grown at an astonishing rate in recent years thanks to the government pricing smokers out of the legal market. The going rate for a pack of cigarettes is now effectively £5.
The foundations of a tobacco resurgence have been laid
While it has become cheaper to smoke, the hysteria about vaping has grown. A mere 13 per cent of smokers in England know that vaping is less harmful than smoking. More than a third think it is worse than smoking and 37 per cent think it is equally harmful. This represents a staggering failure of public health messaging and should be borne in mind whenever you see an opinion poll showing support for anti-vaping legislation. Ignorance about the relative risks of smoking and vaping is endemic among both smokers and nonsmokers and gets worse every year. It would be hardly surprising if smokers are taking a “better the devil you know” approach.
Finally, and more speculatively, the “forbidden fruit” aspect of smoking may be coming to the fore. The Tobacco & Vapes Bill is the sound of a door closing. The current crop of older teenagers will be the last to ever buy cigarettes legally in this country and it is obvious that sliding prohibition will become full prohibition once the anti-smoking lobby have geared themselves up for the final push. If the government is going to ban something, you might as well do it legally while you can. That, at least, may be what Gen Z are thinking. Critic readers will doubtless be familiar with the work of Charlie XCX whose brat summer was epitomised by “a pack of cigs and a Bic lighter”. Whether such “cigfluencers” have the clout to revive the smoking habit among young people remains to be seen, but with a ban on disposable vapes due in June and a hefty tax on e-cigarettes pencilled in for next year, the foundations of a tobacco resurgence have been laid.
