I just happened to run across a statistic that made my jaw drop. I poked around a bit and it was everywhere. Google is filled with “news” stories going back a week, the New York Times originally ran with it until revising their story, and it showed up on Mentour Pilot, one of my favorite YouTube shows and generally completely reliable.
The stat? Airline bookings from Canada to the US have dropped 70% or more since Trump started insulting Canada.
It is, of course, complete bunk.
The story originates with OAG, which tracks data related to travel. And, according to Canadian airlines, it bears no relationship with reality.
I was briefly taken in, or should I say I didn’t immediately assume it was bunk because it so nicely fits with the “Trump is ruining our relations with our friends” narrative. Certainly Trump has annoyed Canadians and just about every ally we have, so maybe those Canadians who barely express annoyance out loud really are voting with their feet.
And, no doubt, some are. But if so you shouldn’t trust OAG to tell you.
Air Canada, WestJet and Porter Airlines are strongly disputing a report that says Canadian flight bookings to the US are down 70%. One Canadian airline executive says the report is “dead wrong.”
A 27MAR report by OAG, the historical ‘Official Aviation Guide of the Airways’, said cross-border flights from Canada to the States were down as much as 75% for April and down more than 70% for the next few months.
“The decline is striking – bookings are down by over 70% in every month through to the end of September,” said OAG. “This sharp drop suggests that travellers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute.”
One senior-level executive at a major Canadian airline told Open Jaw the figures simply aren’t true.
“The OAG data are dead wrong, and we have told them so,” the executive said. “Those numbers are not approaching reality.”
An Air Canada spokesman said the 70% figure isn’t in line with what Air Canada is seeing.
“Several media have reported on a blog based upon preliminary OAG data, stating that advanced bookings between Canada and the US are down about 70% compared to last year,” spokesman Christophe Hennebelle said in an email to Open Jaw. “However, we can confirm that this is not reflective of Air Canada’s booking patterns, nor the state of the market, based on all information sources available to us.
“While we have experienced a softening in the transborder market – and have shifted a limited amount of capacity to adapt to it as previously announced – the decline Air Canada has experienced is not of the magnitude cited in the blog,” Hennebelle said. “According to our information, when aggregating all indirect and direct booking channels, the decline is significantly less.
You would think the airlines would have a better handle on the issue than OAG, given that the business is their lifeblood.
The New York Times story led with the movement to boycott the US–no doubt that is real since the politicians have been bashing us in the election campaign, quoted the OAG report as if that were real, but then noted that not all Canadian airlines agreed with those numbers.
Is it possible that the airlines are soft-pedaling the problem? Possibly, but I doubt it. They are public companies, and if these numbers were true and they denied them, they would be liable.
I can speculate about where the numbers come from, but only OAG knows. Traffic is down by some amount, but nowhere near 70-75% as the “news” outlets are blaring.
But blaring they are. It is exciting, fits the Narrative™, so out it goes to be repeatedly endlessly.
