One of the best things about being Guatemalan is growing up in a land rich in my two greatest addictions: coffee and chocolate. Life wouldn’t be the same without my daily coffee cups (yes, plural) and my Sunday ritual of sipping authentic hot cocoa. But if you, like me, are a coffee and chocolate enthusiast, you’ve probably noticed the sharp rise in prices for your favorite cup of joe or chocolate bar. Unfortunately, the trend suggests they might keep going up.
The first time I realized the price surge wasn’t just in my head was last year at FEE’s all-staff retreat. We visited a chocolate house in Antigua Guatemala, where we learned how to make chocolate from scratch. At the end of the experience, I bought a bag of cocoa beans—without asking for the price (big mistake). I paid and later realized I had spent far more than usual. At first, I assumed I had been given the “tourist price” since I was with my American colleagues.
However, a few months later, I visited yet another chocolatier who gave me an unexpected economics masterclass. She explained that cocoa beans were becoming increasingly scarce and expensive. Even when local producers could access them, the highest-quality beans were being exported. She mentioned that “prices have risen by more than double.” A New York Times article confirmed her claim. Intrigued, I went home to investigate further and realized that cocoa wasn’t the only commodity in trouble—coffee was, too.
The Cocoa Crisis
Cocoa prices skyrocketed in 2024, ending the year with a 178.2% increase, closing at $11,675 per ton after an all-time high of $12,931. In 2025, prices have reversed, dropping 33% year on year to fall below $8,000 per ton—still a historical high.
Last year’s surge was driven by severe supply constraints. Poor weather conditions in West Africa—where Ivory Coast and Ghana produce over 60% of the world’s cocoa—caused a significant decline in global stocks. Supply chain disruptions and unfavorable harvests created a perfect storm for record-high prices.
Guatemala, while not a major stakeholder in global markets, still feels the ripple effects. Local producers face shortages, and domestic availability is limited.
Coffee: A Luxury Commodity?
On the coffee front, things are looking far worse. The C-price, the global benchmark for coffee, has shown an upward trend for the last two years, and there’s little sign of relief.
Brazil, the world’s largest arabica producer, has faced extreme weather. Cooxupé, the country’s biggest arabica coffee cooperative, warned that high temperatures and below-average rainfall in key coffee-growing regions will negatively impact this year’s yield. Meanwhile, Vietnam, the world’s leading robusta producer, is also facing extreme droughts. The Dak Lak weather projected hot temperatures and reduced rainfall in the Central Highlands, tightening supply even more.
In Brazil, however, weather is only part of the story. A 26-year record high inflation is also fueling price hikes. In February, the Financial Times reported that coffee prices had surged nearly 40% in a year. Many Brazilians are blaming Lula da Silva’s government. One FT interviewee said: “I blame the government.” Consumers have turned to “cafake,” a fake coffee substitute made from alternative ingredients.
Meanwhile, in the US, coffee consumption remains steady despite price hikes. J.M. Smucker, the parent company of Folgers and Café Bustelo, reported a 2% rise in net sales for its coffee brands last quarter. But while home coffee drinkers adapt, coffee shops remain under pressure.
The Bigger Picture
What started as a simple curiosity about rising prices for my favorite products led me down a rabbit hole of economic realities. What happens anywhere in the world affects how we consume everything.
Cocoa prices may have stabilized for now, but another drought could send them soaring again. Meanwhile, coffee remains in troubled waters, caught between supply shocks, inflation, and climate volatility—pushing everyday commodities into luxury territory.
Brace yourselves—a world where coffee is reserved for the wealthy may not be entirely out of the question. One thing’s for sure: I’m not keen on drinking “cafake.”
