The Tories are facing a grim set of local elections next week with a leading expert predicting Kemi Badenoch‘s party will shed around 500 council seats.
Lord Robert Hayward, a Conservative peer and top pollster, said he expects the Tories to lose between 475 to 525 councillors at next Thursday’s elections.
He suggested many of these Tory losses would be to Nigel Farage‘s Reform UK and, to a lesser extent, to the Liberal Democrats.
Lord Hayward forecast Reform would pick up around 400 to 450 council seats, which he expected to be heavily concentrated in the Midlands and the North.
Speaking to ITV, he said the Lib Dems would gain around 70 to 80 seats, while the Greens would gain 20 to 40 councillors and could nearly double their current tally.
Labour would see essentially no change in their number of councillors, with the party seeing some gains from the Tories but losses to Reform and others, the peer added.
Mrs Badenoch has already admitted the Tories are in for a ‘very difficult’ set of elections, as voters go to the polls in council contests across England.
But she last night dismissed remarks by Robert Jenrick, her shadow justice secretary, in which he floated the possibility of a future Conservative and Reform ‘coalition’.
The Tories are facing a grim set of local elections next week with a leading expert predicting Kemi Badenoch ‘s party will shed around 500 council seats
Mrs Badenoch dismissed remarks by Robert Jenrick, her shadow justice secretary, in which he floated the possibility of a future Conservative and Reform ‘coalition’
In an audio recording obtained by Sky News, Mr Jenrick said he wanted the ‘fight’ against Labour to be ‘united’ and vowed to create a ‘coalition’ to achieve that.
He added that if Mr Farage’s party became a ‘permanent or semi-permanent fixture on the British political scene’, then ‘life becomes a lot harder’ for the Tories.
But, speaking to ITV’s Peston last night, Mrs Badenoch said: ‘I’ve been very clear there will be no pact.
‘Reform and Nigel Farage have said their aim is to destroy the Conservative Party.
‘My job and Robert’s job is to make sure the Conservative Party, which has been around for hundreds of years, continues to be around.’
The Tory leader claimed Mr Jenrick’s comments had been ‘overblown’, adding: ‘He’s made a point, which I do agree with.
‘We lost a lot of votes to Reform, we had a very, very heavy defeat last year, we’re going to have very challenging local election results…
‘We have to get the votes back of people we lost. At that last election people voted particularly for Reform but other parties because they didn’t want Conservatives.
‘That means making sure we have a centre-right offer that is compelling. And that is going to need us getting those voters back, there’s nothing controversial in that.’
Speaking to the UCL Conservative Association in March, Mr Jenrick said: ‘You head towards a general election, where the nightmare scenario is that Keir Starmer sails in through the middle as a result of the two parties being disunited.
‘I don’t know about you, but I’m not prepared for that to happen.’
Mr Jenrick, who was defeated by Mrs Badenoch in last year’s Tory leadership contest, added: ‘I want the fight to be united.
‘And so, one way or another, I’m determined to do that and bring this coalition together, and make sure we unite as a nation as well.’
A source close to Mr Jenrick said: ‘Rob’s comments are about voters and not parties.
‘He’s clear we have to put Reform out of business and make the Conservatives the natural home for all those on the right, rebuilding the coalition of voters we had in 2019 and can have again.
‘But he’s under no illusions how difficult that is – we have to prove over time we’ve changed and can be trusted again.’
