Pollster Nate Silver has named Democratic New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the early front-runner for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, a prediction that critics say highlights a leftward shift of the Democratic Party.
Silver, perhaps best known for founding statistical analysis site FiveThirtyEight, shared this bold claim in a “Silver Bulletin” Substack video, joined by Galen Druke, who also picked Ocasio-Cortez as the top contender.
Druke noted the “fervent support” she has among her far-left base, as noted by The Daily Beast.
Silver, meanwhile, highlighted Ocasio-Cortez’s youth, progressive stance, and media savvy, qualities whose mileage may very depending on your political affiliation.
Her recent “Fighting Oligarchy” tour with Bernie Sanders has seemingly drawn big crowds — and big backlash.
“The media is kind of obsessed with her,” Druke noted, though much of that “obsession” seems negative.
Silver cautioned she’s young — she’ll be just 39 in 2028 — and may not run, with electability concerns lingering.
Her potential 2026 run for governor or Senate could shape her path, though Silver sees her current polling as a strong foundation for a presidential bid.
Both Silver and Druke eventually revealed a sports draft-like “big board” of how they would rank potential 2028 president candidates from the Democratic Party.
Results! I thought I was gonna surprise everyone by taking AOC first, but Galen won at rock-paper-scissors and chose her first instead!https://t.co/DAlKWnP5rQ pic.twitter.com/zL80ForTaY
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 16, 2025
Will Democrats nominate AOC in 2028?
Both Silver and Druke wanted Ocasio-Cortez as the “first pick” of their mock draft, but the ensuing picks also paint a fascinating picture for a Democratic Party still trying to navigate a world where Trump and the Republicans rocked them during the 2024 general election.
The top pick after Ocasio-Cortez? Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who is perhaps best known recently for being a victim of an arson attack and not being Kamala Harris’ vice presidential candidate.
(The title of failed vice presidential candidate would eventually fall on Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who came in as Druke’s ninth overall pick.)
After Shapiro, you basically got a laundry list of prominent Democrats under the age of 65, including the aforementioned Harris, the “record-setting” Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
As to whom the Republicans would nominate against the Ocasio-Cortez’s and Gavin Newsom’s of the world, that question is a bit murkier.
Trump has firmly entrenched himself as the leader of the Republican Party, but there doesn’t appear to be a firm succession plan in place — hinting at what could be a wide open and highly competitive GOP primary the closer the country gets to the 2028 election.
Will the candidate that emerges from that potentially crowded field be able to hang with Ocasio-Cortez, or whomever makes it off that draft board (assuming it’s even someone on that list)?
It’s a fascinating question and scenario, and one that will happen sooner than you think.
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