Activity below the surface of an Alaskan volcano has scientists on edge over an eruption that could be coming.
Mount Spurr, which is about 78 miles southwest of Anchorage, has been the focus of attention since October, when sub-surface earthquakes, gas emissions, and melting snow and ice at its summit have indicated some type of activity, according to the Anchorage Daily News.
In March, the Alaska Volcano Observatory indicated an eruption was possible within “weeks to months,”
More recent data suggests that an eruption might not be as likely in April as it seemed in March, but Alaska Volcano Observatory scientist-in-charge Matt Haney said there are about earthquakes below Mount Spurr every week, and bad weather has hindered data-gathering.
“We don’t have the full suite of data sets that, in an ideal case, we would be drawing upon to make our interpretation,” Haney said.
Enjoy this spectacular video of the summit crater of Mt. Spurr, taken by AVO staff during fieldwork Feb 7. The lake, which formed summer 2024, is mostly covered in ice w/ some turquoise water visible. The fumaroles (steam/gas vents) are the source of the white vapor plumes.(1/4) pic.twitter.com/X7C8SR5BXf
— Alaska AVO (@alaska_avo) February 19, 2025
If an eruption comes, it would be at the Crater Peak side vent, and “it would be explosive,” Haney said, according to the Daily Mail.
Ash plumes could reach 50,000 feet high, he said.
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The Thursday update from the Alaska Volcano Observatory noted the “[s]hallow earthquake activity underneath Mount Spurr remains elevated.”
“Based on the recent modest changes in monitoring data and the inability to measure gas for the last month, the outcome of the current unrest is less certain,” the update said.
However, the update said something is taking place, noting “the rate of deep earthquakes (greater than 6 miles, or 10 km, below sea level) has been fairly constant, suggesting that magma remains active deep beneath the volcano.”
The update said that “the likelihood of an eruption has decreased from March, but the volcano remains at an elevated level of unrest and an explosive eruption (or eruptions) like those that occurred in 1953 and 1992 is still possible.
“We expect to see increases in seismic activity, gas emissions, and surface heating prior to an eruption, if one were to occur. Such stronger unrest may provide days to weeks of additional warning,” the update said.
The update said predicting an eruption is not an exact science.
“We cannot assign an exact timeframe for when an eruption will occur, if it does. We expect to see additional changes to monitoring data prior to an eruption, as magma moves closer to the surface,” the update said.
“This would include a change in the rate and character of earthquakes, onset of sustained seismic tremor, further increased gas emissions, changes in surface deformation, and melting of snow and ice. In 1992, such changes occurred about three weeks prior to the first eruption,” the update said.
The update noted that not all activity results in a volcanic eruption.
“From 2004 to 2006, Spurr summit experienced an episode of increased seismicity, surface uplift, and heating that melted a large hole in the summit ice cover and generated debris flows, but no eruption occurred. Short-lived seismic swarms under Mount Spurr also occurred in 1979, 1982, and 1989 but did not result in eruption,” the update said.
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